The 2014 Midterms: Is There a Political Tsunami Approaching?

AFBrancoWreckingBall1132014Tomorrow is the most important Midterm Election in our lifetimes.

I’m are not being hyperbolic. I am simply stating a fact.

The New York Times reports that

Republicans entered the final weekend before the midterm elections clearly holding the better hand to control the Senate and poised to add to their House majority. But a decidedly sour electorate and a sizable number of undecided voters added a measure of suspense.

The final drama surrounded the Senate, which has been a Democratic bulwark for President Obama since his party lost its House majority in 2010. Republicans need to gain six seats to seize the Senate, and officials in both parties believe there is a path for them to win at least that many.

Yet the races for a number of seats that will decide the majority remained close, polls showed, prompting Republicans to pour additional money into get-out-the-vote efforts in Alaska, Georgia and Iowa. Democrats were doing the same in Colorado, where they were concerned because groups that tend to favor Republicans voted early in large numbers, and in Iowa.

While an air of mystery hung over no fewer than nine Senate races, the only question surrounding the House was how many seats Republicans would add. If they gain a dozen seats, it will give them an advantage not seen since 1948 and potentially consign the Democrats to minority status until congressional redistricting in the 2020s.

In a sign of a worsening climate, Democratic officials shifted money to incumbents in once-safe districts around Las Vegas and Santa Barbara, Calif. And over the weekend, they put more money toward television ads in districts held by Democrats in Iowa and Minnesota, including that of longtime Representative Collin C. Peterson of Minnesota. Though there are fewer competitive House seats than in past elections because of gerrymandering, party strategists were still airing ads in 40 districts.

“It’s a grim environment,” said Representative Steve Israel of New York, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Mr. Israel was spending the weekend pleading with his caucus to contribute to imperiled colleagues to minimize losses. Trying to soften the blow, he noted that losses were expected: The party in control of the White House has lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections in the last century.

Just two years after he won a second term by a commanding margin, Mr. Obama haskept his distance from the most pivotal congressional races. On Saturday, he was to address a heavily African-American crowd in Detroit to bolster Michigan’s Democratic nominee for governor.

Senate Republicans are confident. A senior party official called Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader, on Saturday at his Louisville home and, after running through voting projections, told Mr. McConnell that he would be the next majority leader. Mr. McConnell’s initial reaction was only a long pause.

According to Nate Silver’s blog, fivethirtyeight.com,

The GOP’s chances of winning the Senate are 68.5 percent, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast, its highest figure of the year.

Among the 20 new polls released Thursday — it looks like there will be no Great Poll Shortage after all — two were principally responsible for Republican gains. The first was in Kentucky, where a SurveyUSA poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal had Republican incumbent Mitch McConnell ahead 48-43 over Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes. The poll represented a shift from SurveyUSA’s previous two polls, which had a 1 percentage-point lead for McConnell and a 2-point lead for Grimes. With SurveyUSA (a highly rated pollster) now more in line with other polls of the state, we have a clearer story in Kentucky. It’s one that probably ends in a victory for McConnell, whose chances of winning are up to 87 percent.

The other poll was in Arkansas, which hasn’t been surveyed as often as other key Senate races. That poll, from the University of Arkansas, found Republican Tom Cotton up by 13 percentage points over Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor. No other poll of the state has shown Cotton with a double-digit lead, but he hasn’t trailed in a nonpartisan poll since Sept. 22. When the choice is between polls that show a candidate with a small lead and polls that show him with a large lead, he’s usually in good shape just a few days before Election Day.

Speaking of which, it’s not too early to look ahead to election night (along with our partners at ABC News, we’ll be covering everything; we hope you’ll join us). The number you’ll be hearing about all night is six — as in, Republicans need to net six seats from Democrats to win control of the Senate.

As we’ve pointed out before, the “net” part of that phrase is key. Republicans will have to win more than six Democratic-held seats if they lose a couple of their own. Their incumbent in Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts, is only even-money to win re-election (although there’s a chance independent Greg Orman, even if he wins, could caucus with Republicans). The GOP candidate in Georgia, David Perdue, is ahead by only about 1 percentage point against Democrat Michelle Nunn, and that race could go to a runoff. McConnell is likely, but not certain, to survive.

Can the Republicans win control of the Senate and pick up more seats in the House of Representatives tomorrow?

It all depends on the following factors:

1. How mad are American Voters at President Barack Hussein Obama and his Congressional Enablers in the Democrat Party?

Since Obama assumed the presidency for the second time, he has doubled-down on his mission to “radically change” America into something that it was never meant to be. We all hear our fellow Americans venting their anger to us about the purposeful ineptness of President Pantywaist. But, will this motivate the average American to go to the polls tomorrow and vent their frustration?

2. How big will tomorrow’s turnout be?

Will American Conservatives stay home, as they did when the Republicans ran the severely Moderate Mitt Romney as their Presidential Nominee, or are they sufficiently motivated by Obama’s actions to vote straight Republican…even for snakes like Mississippi’s Thad Cochran, who won his State Party’s Nomination as Senatorial Candidate by enlisting Black Democrats to vote for him in the state’s Republican Primary?

3. Will Voter Fraud be better controlled than it was in the 2012 President Election?

Will Democrats vote early, vote often, and “vote post-mortem”?

If all the stars align and Americans exercise some common sense, tomorrow’s Midterm Elections could turn out to be a Political Tsunami of epic proportions

As you contemplate casting your vote tomorrow, think about this:

Our Founding Fathers designed our government for a very specific purpose: to give Americans a voice in the direction in which direction their country should go.

Tomorrow’s election will be a referendum on the epic failure that is the Presidency of Barack Hussein Obama.

The greatest United States President in my lifetime, Ronald Wilson Reagan, said,

Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction. We didn’t pass it to our children in the bloodstream. It must be fought for, protected, and handed on for them to do the same.

In order to preserve our nation for future generations, it is time to restore the System of Checks and Balances which our Founders, through deliberation and with foresight, so ingeniously put in place over 200 years ago.

Our freedom requires it.

Until He Comes,

KJ

Leave a comment