Romney: Slipping in the Swing States

Before I begin the subject of today’s post, let me re-iterate:  on Tuesday, November 6th, 2012, I am going to hold my nose and pull the voting lever for the Massachusetts Moderate, Mitt Romney, because I have no other legitimate choice.

Evidently, a lot of Americans aren’t as sure about their vote as I am.

USA Today reports that ol’ Mittens is having some trouble convincing folks in the Swing States:

In a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of swing states, an overwhelming majority of voters remember seeing campaign ads over the past month; most voters in other states say they haven’t. In the battlegrounds, one in 12 say the commercials have changed their minds about President Obama or Republican Mitt Romney — a difference on the margins, but one that could prove crucial in a close race.

At this point, Obama is the clear winner in the ad wars. Among swing-state voters who say the ads have changed their minds about a candidate, rather than just confirmed what they already thought, 76% now support the president, vs. 16% favoring Romney.

“We gave them new information,” says Obama campaign manager Jim Messina. “Romney had been out there claiming success as governor,” but Democratic ads have prompted voters to “take a look at his record” on job creation and as head of the private-equity firm Bain Capital. Messina also credits a $25 million buy for a positive ad “about the challenges the president inherited and what we had to do to move this country forward.”

To be sure, Obama’s ads have done more to win back Democrats than to win over independents or Republicans: Thirteen percent of Democrats say their minds have been changed by ads, compared with 9% of independents and 3% of Republicans.

Romney pollster Neil Newhouse calls the findings unsurprising. “It is expected to find that more voters say their views have changed about Mitt Romney; they simply don’t know him all that well,” he says. “On the other hand, there are few voters who are going to say their views have changed about President Obama. They know him pretty damned well.”

Obama and his allies have outspent Romney’s side on ads so far by almost a third. Although the TV spots didn’t start earlier than in recent elections, there have been more than ever before — including a negative flood from the new breed of super PACs — and they are continuing without the traditional summertime letup.

On July 3rd, thehill.com reported that

Mitt Romney has a sizeable lead in 15 battleground states, according to a CNN/ORC poll released late Monday.

The Republican candidate leads President Obama 51 percent to 43 in 15 states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2012 election.

Obama won 12 of these battleground states in 2008 — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — and will need to keep about half of those in 2012 if he’s to secure reelection. The poll also included Missouri, Indiana and Arizona as battleground states.

Why is Scooter gaining ground on Mittens in these key states?

Last Thursday, after Romney aide, Eric Fehrnstrohm, earlier in the week, put both feet in his over-sized mouth, by stating that the Romney Campaign agreed with the Administration that Obamacare was not a tax, The Wall Street Journal posted the following:

The Romney campaign thinks it can play it safe and coast to the White House by saying the economy stinks and it’s Mr. Obama’s fault. We’re on its email list and the main daily message from the campaign is that “Obama isn’t working.” Thanks, guys, but Americans already know that. What they want to hear from the challenger is some understanding of why the President’s policies aren’t working and how Mr. Romney’s policies will do better.

Meanwhile, the Obama campaign is assailing Mr. Romney as an out-of-touch rich man, and the rich man obliged by vacationing this week at his lake-side home with a jet-ski cameo. Team Obama is pounding him for Bain Capital, and until a recent ad in Ohio the Romney campaign has been slow to respond.

Team Obama is now opening up a new assault on Mr. Romney as a job outsourcer with foreign bank accounts, and if the Boston boys let that one go unanswered, they ought to be fired for malpractice.

All of these attacks were predictable, in particular because they go to the heart of Mr. Romney’s main campaign theme—that he can create jobs as President because he is a successful businessman and manager. But candidates who live by biography typically lose by it. See President John Kerry.

The biography that voters care about is their own, and they want to know how a candidate is going to improve their future. That means offering a larger economic narrative and vision than Mr. Romney has so far provided. It means pointing out the differences with specificity on higher taxes, government-run health care, punitive regulation, and the waste of politically-driven government spending.

Mr. Romney promised Republicans he was the best man to make the case against President Obama, whom they desperately want to defeat. So far Mr. Romney is letting them down.

The FACT is:  this country is looking for a leader, a man of conviction.

Governor Romney hasn’t told us yet what he stands for…and it does not help his poll numbers that, from week to week, his convictions seem to change.

Americans want another Reagan.  Unfortunately, right now, Romney seems to be acting more like Clinton.

7 thoughts on “Romney: Slipping in the Swing States

  1. lovingmyUSA's avatar lovingmyUSA

    The one time I will disagree with you, KJ, Romney has not changed from “week to week”. Just because he is confused on what the president meant, doesnt mean he has “changed positions’..

    .”Obama campaign spokesman: Hey, we never said the mandate was a tax” http://hotair.com/archives/2012/07/05/obama-campaign-spokesman-hey-we-never-said-the-mandate-was-a-tax/

    The reason Romney is losing in swing states is because Oclueless is waging a negative attack ad campagn…

    Sorry, I don’t buy this story line…

    Like

  2. lovingmyUSA's avatar lovingmyUSA

    And when asked about it in the debates Romney can say which position of Obama’s should he debate, whether it was a penalty as he said in 2008, or a tax, as he had his lawyers debate it as before the Supreme Court?

    Like

  3. cmsinaz's avatar cmsinaz

    i’m hoping the polls are down because its summertime, folks have to come around and see what an idiot we have right now in office

    Like

  4. yoda's avatar yoda

    Mitt needs to have a message and stop talking like the GOP elite and like the people who pull the lever. Barry know how to get votes, so he continues his message that everyone will get their free stuff and changes his dialect to sound like the people at each of his campaign stops.

    Like

  5. darwin's avatar darwin

    Have you looked at the internals on recent polls, KJ? I suspect that democrats are vastly over represented in these polls.

    Like

  6. Gohawgs's avatar Gohawgs

    “a man of conviction.”…Agreed

    The John Kerry of the R party has no one but himself (and an incompetent spokesperson or 3) for his lackluster campaign/standing among voters. Some voters need a reason to pull the lever FOR a candidate, being the poster boy for beach footwear doesn’t usually equal clear leadership and thus a vote FOR a candidate.

    Here’s to hoping for the best come November…

    Like

Leave a reply to lovingmyUSA Cancel reply