The Race for the Nomination: Strategy and Slippage

As the next Presidential Election, scheduled for November 6, 2012, looms closer and closer, the competition for the nomination of both parties is heating up.

On the Republican side of the aisle, per cnn.com:

A new national survey is further proof that Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s entrance earlier this month into the race for the White House has dramatically altered the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.

According to a CNN/ORC International Poll of Republicans and independent voters who lean towards the GOP, Perry now sits atop the list of Republican presidential candidates, with strong support from most demographic groups.

The survey, released Monday, indicates that 27 percent of Republicans nationwide support Perry for their party’s nomination, with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who’s making his second bid for the White House, at 14 percent. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin follows at ten percent, with Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani at nine percent, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who’s making his third bid for the presidency, at six percent. Every one else listed on the questionnaire registered in the low single digits.

The survey follows a Gallup poll out last week which also placed Perry at the top of the GOP field. Other polling released in the past week also confirms the findings of the CNN and Gallup surveys.

“Perry’s support is higher among Republican men, at 32 percent, than Republican women, at 23 percent, but he has more support among either group than any other candidate,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

According to the survey, Perry supporters tend to be older and have higher incomes, but the longtime Texas governor also tops the list, albeit by smaller margins, among lower-income Republicans and those under 50 years old.

“Perry’s biggest support comes from Republicans who say they are supporters of the tea party movement – he wins 37 percent of their vote – but he also edges Romney by a couple of points among Republicans who don’t call themselves tea party supporters,” adds Holland.

So, what is Romney’s campaign strategy for defeating Perry?  Well, according to washingtonpost.com:

Romney has been criticized for refusing to engage Perry, but his campaign advisers see no need to do so now. They point out that the Democratic National Committee is going after Perry, hundreds of reporters hoping to make names for themselves are scouring his life and record, and other candidates that Perry has passed in the polls are determined to take him down. Why should Romney attack Perry directly when the Democrats, the liberal media and Michele Bachmann will do it for him? Romney’s strategists note that Perry will have to survive five debates in six weeks — ample opportunity for Bachmann to “rip his eyes out” (as she did to Tim Pawlenty) or for Perry to blow himself up.

…The Romney campaign will argue that Perry repels independents and can’t win in key swing states such as Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan — while Romney can.

Will this strategy work? As Romney wrapped up his Dover town hall, I asked a veteran reporter how he thought Romney did. People were leaving impressed with Romney, the reporter said, but no one was leaving “in love.” Therein lies Romney’s problem. Perry is the exciting guy in the cowboy boots who people fall in love with. Romney is the steady, clean-cut guy who waits patiently while you flirt with other candidates — hoping you’ll realize they’re not right for you. He’s the guy you settle for.

The question is: Are Republicans willing to settle in 2012?

Nope. Not this time.

A couple of observations:

1.)  Palin’s in Third Place and she has not even announced…yet.

2.) Romney’s fading faster than the Nationwide Insurance guy.

Meanwhile, unexpectedly, on the Democratic side of the aisle, per washingtonexaminer.com:

A new poll by CNN and ORC International finds that 27 percent of Democrats would like to see their party nominate a candidate other than Barack Obama for president in 2012.

In response to the question, “Do you think the Democratic party should renominate Barack Obama as the party’s candidate for president in 2012, or do you think the Democratic party should nominate a different candidate for president in 2012?” — 72 percent said they wanted to see Obama renominated. But 27 percent, slightly more than one in every four, said they wanted to see Democrats nominate a different candidate. One percent had no opinion.

The poll was taken August 24-25. In a survey taken in early August, 28 percent of Democrats said they wanted a different candidate. Polls taken in July and before showed Obama in a stronger position, with no more than 22 percent saying they preferred a different candidate. The current poll is based on interviews with 463 Democrats and has a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

On the heels of this little tidbit, things got curiouser and curiouser yesterday, gentle reader.

Realclearpolitics.com reports that there was a testy little exchange during yesterday’s White House press briefing.

WorldNetDaily White House correspondent Lester Kinsolving asked Jay Carney if President Obama is “certain” that Hillary Clinton won’t primary him. Per RCP, this comes after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) said Obama has moved to the right because he has no primary opponent.

Moved to the Right?  Sen. Sanders needs to quit drinking.

But, I digress…

Here’s a transcript of what happened:

Lester Kinsolving: “Vermont’s Senator Bernie Sanders said, and this is a quote, “one of the reasons the president has moved so far to the right is there is no primary opposition to him.” And my question: Why is the president certain Hillary won’t run against him?”

Jay Carney: “You win the award for originality today.”

Kinsolving: “Thank you very much.”

Carney: “The president is focused not on any election, he’s focused right now on doing his job to grow the economy, create jobs, ensure Americans who are in the path of this hurricane are taken care of.

Kinsolving: “I understand. Why are you running away from this question? Can you guarantee, I mean, are you sure Hillary is not going to run.”

Carney: “You’ll have to ask her. We’re fairly confident — that we need to focus on the task at hand.”

Oh, my goodness. A tad bit defensive, aren’t we, Jaybird?  

The Administration’s Internal Poll Numbers must stink on ice.

Perhaps it’s not so good to be the King.

 

5 thoughts on “The Race for the Nomination: Strategy and Slippage

  1. darwin's avatar darwin

    I think Sarah Palin is waiting for Perry to take Mittens out and then she’ll come in and kill off Perry. I hope, anyway.

    And boy, that’s some great leadership from Mittens, isn’t it?

    Like

  2. Gohawgs's avatar Gohawgs

    Bernie Sanders is about the only honest pol on the left, when it comes to Party identity…

    I’m hoping Evan Bayh enters the race against the obamanation. Bayh would win the Primaries and then lose the general allowing Bayh to achieve what Kennedy couldn’t against Carter…

    Like

  3. Gohawgs's avatar Gohawgs

    The Mittness Protection Bunker isn’t helping Romney much, is it? Mitt is spending money and saying nothing. Palin is saying a lot and spending nothing…

    Like

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