Will It Be “Morning in America”, Again?

Obama’s minion “Baghdad Bob” Gibbs tried to attack the highly successful Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch, concerning his opinion concerning last week’s suspicious Unemployment Rate.

Foxnews.com has the story:

Obama senior campaign adviser Robert Gibbs on Sunday criticized former General Electric executive Jack Welch for suggesting the Obama campaign has influenced or manipulated the most recent U.S. unemployment numbers.

“The notion, quite frankly, that somebody as well respected as Jack Welch would go on television and single-handedly embarrass himself for the entire day of Friday by saying somehow that these statistics are made up … it’s incredibly dangerous,” Gibbs said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

Conservatives and others suggested Friday, after the Labor Department report showed the September unemployment rate had dipped to 7.8 percent, that the number, the lowest since President Obama took office, might have been an outlier or based on incorrect data and assumptions.

Welch appeared to take the idea a step further Friday, two days after an unspectacular debate performance by President Obama, when he tweeted: “Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything . . . can’t debate so change numbers.”

Welch appeared later on Fox News and said he was not sure how the federal government arrived at the numbers, but suggested the report should make officials look at measurements used.

“I don’t know what the right numbers are,” the 76-year-old Welch said. “But I’ll tell you these numbers don’t smell right when you think about where the economy is right now.”

He argued in his defense that 25 of the country’s top economists predicted the August unemployment rate of 8.1 percent would remain the same this month or drop to 8.1 percent.

“That’s why I tweeted,” Welch said.

The other Labor Department numbers being questioned by Welch and others are those on jobs added to the economy.

As I’ve gathered by  communicating with other Americans over the weekend, I can assure you:

No one is buying the 7.8% Unemployment Rate.

In fact, it does not appear to have made a bit of difference.

Per colorado.edu:

An update to an election forecasting model announced by two University of Colorado professors in August continues to project that Mitt Romney will win the 2012 presidential election.

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Their original prediction model was one of 13 published in August in PS: Political Science & Politics, a peer-reviewed journal of the American Political Science Association. The journal has published collections of presidential election models every four years since 1996, but this year the models showed the widest split in outcomes, Berry said. Five predicted an Obama win, five forecast a Romney win, and three rated the 2012 race as a toss-up.

The Bickers and Berry model includes both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors. The new analysis includes unemployment rates from August rather than May, and changes in per capita income from the end of June rather than March. It is the last update they will release before the election.

Corroborating this report:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

And, finally, Jim Geraghty, in an Op Ed for the New York Daily News writes

So the choice before Americans is a rerun of the gridlock of the past two years, or something different — a Republican-controlled Washington, but with a President Romney whose record, demeanor and style is quite different from that of George W. Bush.

None of this means that the task remaining before Romney isn’t difficult. But for most of this general election, the race featured an incumbent and a poorly-defined caricature.

The debates demonstrated that no one can make the case for a candidate better than the candidate himself — not the SuperPACs, not the national party, not the surrogates nor the running mate. Only Romney himself could look the voters in the eye and demonstrate that he had the knowledge, the composure, the deftness and the concern they wanted to see. Romney’s message was simple but resonant — if we can get more Americans in jobs, we’ll see dramatic improvement in our budgetary, debt and social conditions.

If, by Nov. 6, Americans conclude they believe Romney can deliver on that vision, then the conventional wisdom of just a few weeks ago may prove spectacularly wrong. Romney may not just win, he may win handily.

Make it so, Americans.

 Last Thursday, after being pumped up by Mitt’s stellar debate performance, I Tweeted:

It may not be Morning in America again yet, but, after last night, we can see the first rays of sunlight on the horizon.

Judging for the reaction of the Obama Administration, their sycophants in the Main Stream Media, and their paid and unpaid Internet “pundits”,  they’re are all afraid of the light of day.

Hmmm. Perhaps they’re all vampires.

But…that’s a whole ‘nother Blog.

7.8% Unemployment: Figures Lie. Liars Figure.

The hot topic right now, is  a fortuitous lower Unemployment Rate that miraculously appeared in yesterday’s Jobs Report.

Noel Sheppard of newsbusters.org has the story:

The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September, a number certain to impact the presidential race.

Pundits have been saying for months this number had to drop below 8 percent for it not to be a hindrance to President Obama’s reelection chances.

The economy added 114,000 nonfarm payrolls in the month according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics with gains in healthcare, transportation and warehousing.

Truly shocking in the report was that the number of unemployed people dropped by 456,000 to 12.1 million.

Maybe more shocking, total employment, as measured by the Household Survey, rose by 873,000 in September to 142,974,000, the biggest one month jump since June 1983.

As such, total employment now stands at the highest level it’s been since December 2008 before Obama was inaugurated.

But even more mysterious is the divergence in the two surveys done by the Labor Department.

The Household Survey showed a gain of 873,000 people employed in September – resulting in the surprise drop in the unemployment rate – while the Establishment Survey only showed a rise of 114,000.

Here’s an interesting fact:

At least two economists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) have contributed to President Barack Obama’s campaign. Harley Frazis of Bethesda, MD, has contributed at least $2,000 to Obama and $9,000 to the Democratic National Committee over the last three election cycles. During his time at BLS, Harley has published a number of papers including his most recent, “How to Think About Time-Use Data: What Inferences Can We Make About Long- and Short-Run Time Use from Time Diaries?”

Stephen Phillips of Washington, D.C., has contributed at least $270 to Obama during the 2012 cycle. According to his LinkedIn profile, Phillips served as an economist at BLS between June 2009 and July 2012. Phillips was responsible for examining the impact of Obamacare on Healthcare North American Industry Classification System indices. Phillips was also assistant coach for a girls’ high school tennis team in 2010.

To say that yesterday morning’s jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is being met with skepticism is an understatement.

Labor Secretary Hilda Solis appeared on CNBC yesterday morning, where they actually asked her if the books were cooked.

Solis called the charges insulting and “ludicrous.”

Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former economics adviser to John McCain and the former head the Congressional Budget Office, calls the numbers “implausible.”

“Sept. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent due to an extraordinary – but implausible – estimate of 873,000 #jobs in household survey,” said Holtz-Eakin on Twitter.

“The report presented a slew of contradictory data points, with the total employment level soaring despite the low net number,” said CNBC’s Jeff Cox.

The Washington Post’s Neil Irwin adds, “Weird that payrolls are exactly on forecast but household survey is far better.”

And the Wall Street Journal warns that these numbers should be taken “with a grain of salt.””The big jump in the household survey is certainly a welcome sign. But take this data with a grain of salt, especially considering the volatile reputation this data point holds,” writes the Wall Street Journal.

“No way in the world these numbers are accurate,” said Ed Butowsky of Chapwood Capital Investment on Fox Business. “Somebody needs to do an investigation. … Investigate these numbers.”

The Republican Candidate for President agrees.

“This is not what a real recovery looks like,” Mr. Romney said in a statement, pointing to what he said was a downward trend of job-creation. “We created fewer jobs in September than in August, and fewer jobs in August than in July, and we’ve lost over 600,000 manufacturing jobs since President Obama took office.”

The Bureau of Labor Statistics‘ key jobs survey said the economy added 114,000 new jobs in September, and BLS said the unemployment rate dipped to 7.8 percent — a drop of three-tenths of a percent.

That means the rate is now back down to what it was in January 2009, when Mr. Obama took office, inheriting a recession from President George W. Bush.

BLS also revised July and August job numbers upward by a combined 86,000, suggesting a slightly better jobs picture over the summer than was reported at the time.

The jobs news comes just two days after Mr. Romney seemed to be gaining momentum from a strong debate performance.

The Republican presidential nominee loses a major talking point from the campaign trail, where he regularly talked about the streak of consecutive months the unemployment rate had remained above 8 percent.

Mr. Romney on Friday said the jobs picture is still bleak — particularly because of the millions who have dropped out of the market altogether.

“If not for all the people who have simply dropped out of the labor force, the real unemployment rate would be closer to 11 percent,” Mr. Romney said in his statement. “The results of President Obama’s failed policies are staggering — 23 million Americans struggling for work, nearly one in six living in poverty, and 47 million people dependent on food stamps to feed themselves and their families. The choice in this election is clear. Under President Obama, we’ll get another four years like the last four years. If I’m elected, we will have a real recovery with pro-growth policies that will create 12 million new jobs and rising incomes for everyone.”

A Cleveland , Ohio businessman summed up America’s economic problems in one sentence:

Potus stopped to meet people waiting for him, where he did the requisite hand-shaking, high-fiving and the rare baby-holding before going on to chat with proprietors at Turczyk’s Meats and the adjoining Larry Vilstein’s, Christopher Bakery and Edward Badbuster & Son. He then asked the proprietor at Rolston Poultry how business was going. “Terrible since you got here,” the man said. Pool could not get close enough to the Rolston Poultry man to get his name or political affiliation. Potus didn’t appear amused by the sentiment.

Hang in there, sir. Things will get better after we throw the Manchurian President out of OUR house.

C’mon, November 6th!