Palin: Will She or Won’t She?

We all know the old adages:

Don’t count your chickens before they’re hatched.

Slow and steady wins the race.

All of the political pundits in Washington, the Intellectually Elite, if you will, on both sides of the political aisle, all seemingly have one question on their minds right now:

Will she or won’t she?

The lady in question? Former Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin.

The action in question:  Will she declare her candidacy for the Republican Presidental Nomination?

Most of Washington’s self-proclaimed political geniuses have written Gov. Palin off, as damaged goods.

However, the reports of Sarah Palin’s political demise may have been premature.

There is speculation among these same pundits that Palin may be prepping for a presidential run.

They claim that reports that the Palins just purchased a $1.7 million home in a secluded neighborhood in Scottsdale, Arizona may be an indicator of an upcoming campaign.

Adding to the speculation is that fact that her daughter, Bristol, also recently purchased a home there.

Why would the Palins move to Arizona? Location, location, location.

Palin would be able to easily access key early voting states from Arizona as opposed to living in Alaska. Moving to Arizona would also line up her schedule more closely with that of the national media which would be covering her campaign, therefore, they could react quickly to breaking news about Palin.

The pundits’ speculation has also been fueled by the announcement of a two-hour documentary on Palin, due to be released next month…wait on it…in Iowa.

Also,Palin has also rehired two aides whose job will be to assist her with travel and public events.

Palin admitted on the Fox News Channel last week that she has the “fire in my belly” for a presidential run. However, she also said that she is concerned about

…the huge amount of scrutiny and the sacrifices that have to be made on my children’s part in order to see their momma run for president.

Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney, the author of Romneycare continue to poll at the top of the Republican field of presidential contenders.

In a gallup.com poll, released on May 17th, Palin was in the top 3 Highest Positive Intensity Scores among the previously-announced and potential Republican candidates, along with Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.

She also scored highest in Name Recognition, followed by Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

Quite a turnaround from November of last year when gallup.com reported that:

More than half of Americans, 52%, now view Sarah Palin unfavorably, the highest percentage holding a negative opinion of the former Alaska governor in Gallup polling since Sen. John McCain tapped her as the 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee. Her 40% favorable rating ties her lowest favorable score, recorded just over a year ago.

…Palin’s image has consistently tilted negative since July 2009, and was nearly as negative in October 2009 as it is today. Public views on her were also more negative than positive just before the 2008 election, in which President Obama handily defeated the Republican ticket. By contrast, Americans’ initial reactions to Palin after her debut at the Republican National Convention that year were mostly favorable.

Now that the 2010 midterms are over, the big question swirling around Palin is whether she will run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Given her high name recognition and broad popularity among Republicans, 80% of whom now view her favorably, she is clearly in a strong position to seek it. However, her negative image among the other party groups — 81% of Democrats and 53% of independents view her unfavorably, while fewer than 4 in 10 view her favorably — casts some doubt on her viability in the general election.

As Palin mulls over whether to run for her party’s nomination or not, you can be sure that another one of the pollsters that Gov. Palin and her team are paying attention to is Scott Rasmussen.

Yesterday on rasmussenreports.com, it was reported that a Generic Republican was a mere one percentage point behind President Barack Hussein Obama (mm mmm mmmm) in a mock Presidential Ballot.

Per the article:

These results are consistent with the fact that the president’s job approval rating has hovered in the high 40s for most of the past 18 months. “On Election Day in 2012, it is reasonable to assume that the president’s vote total will be close to his job approval,” Scott Rasmussen explains. “What is impossible to determine at this point is where the president’s job approval will be in the fall of next year.”

An incumbent who earns support below 50% is generally considered politically vulnerable. In every matchup tested so far this year against potential GOP challengers, the president’s support has stayed between 42% and 49%.

Given the way that Obama has been self-destructing over the last week in the field of Foreign Affairs, with his history and statesmanship lesson from Bibi Netanyahu, and his gaffe-tastic time in the UK (I didn’t know that it was still 2008.),those numbers from Rasmussen are in the process of changing as I write this post.

Gov. Palin could jump into the race, or she could remain a kingmaker, a phrase often heard from her detractors, in an effort to discourage her from running.

I, like you, Gentle Reader, have no clue as to what she will do.

However, allow me to leave you with one more old adage:

Never underestimate the power of a woman.

KJ UPDATE 1:14 PM – It looks like I was right.  Sarah will be traveling with the Rolling Thunder on a bus tour.  Hold on to something.  Here we go.

10 thoughts on “Palin: Will She or Won’t She?

  1. SoundMan

    I just hope & pray that the GOP gets their “stuff” together and FULLY supports our candidate, unlike the vote on the Ryan plan. I am just about wore out with some of these folks getting to DC and forgetting what the people want. For me, Sarah, Michelle, Christy, West, Cain…Any one or combination would be great. See you later KJ.

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  2. darwin

    One thing is for sure, open primaries will ensure that she gets the nomination. Dems will vote for her, thinking that she has no chance of winning the general election.

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  3. Badger40

    I woudn’t blme her if she didn’t. Who wants their family to go through that again. If she does, I would hope people would rise up more in defense of such things.
    Color me skeptical.

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  4. ladyingray

    I couldn’t blame her for not running. Look what the media did to her last time. On the other hand, will there be anything NEW that can be said about her by the lsm?

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